Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. Both authors two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they favour unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will in the end lose but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
